Sir Keir Starmer will fire the starting gun on Labour's local election campaign today, launching the fight for England's town halls at the opening of the most volatile election season in recent British history.

The Prime Minister's launch completes the grid. Kemi Badenoch opened the Conservative campaign on 19 March, Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat effort in Surrey on 24 March, and Reform UK, which has led national opinion polls since early 2025, set out its own stall on 26 March. Every major party is now in the field.

The prizes on 7 May stretch well beyond England's council chambers. Voters in England will elect councillors up and down the country, Scotland will choose its Parliament, and Wales will elect an entirely new 96 member Senedd, the first contest of its kind under the expanded institution.

For Labour, the elections are the first nationwide test of opinion since the 2024 general election, and they arrive at an awkward moment. The Government's opponents sense vulnerability, and its own strategists concede privately that midterm contests are rarely kind to incumbent parties. This one is being fought against a polling backdrop no Labour leader would have chosen.

A campaign like no other

Reform UK's position is the fact that frames everything else. A party that has topped national polls for more than a year must now prove it can convert support into councillors, councils and the unglamorous machinery of local government. Its launch on 26 March was built around that claim: that it is no longer a protest but a party of government in waiting.

The Conservatives, by contrast, are fighting to hold what they have. Mrs Badenoch's early launch on 19 March was a deliberate show of intent from a leader who needs council seats as evidence of recovery. The Liberal Democrats, who chose Surrey for their launch, are targeting the southern councils where their local government machine remains formidable.

The May Elections at a Glance

  • Voters in England elect councillors on 7 May; Scotland elects its Parliament and Wales a new 96 member Senedd.
  • Reform UK launched its campaign on 26 March and has led national opinion polls since early 2025.
  • Kemi Badenoch opened the Conservative campaign on 19 March; Ed Davey launched the Liberal Democrat campaign in Surrey on 24 March.
  • Sir Keir Starmer has given the British Medical Association 48 hours to call off a planned six day doctors' strike after Easter.
  • Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru both launch their Senedd manifestos today, in Swansea and Bedwas respectively.

Strikes and manifestos

The launch is not the Prime Minister's only intervention of the morning. Sir Keir has also given the British Medical Association 48 hours to call off a planned six day doctors' strike due to begin after Easter, framing the ultimatum as a defence of patients. The dispute ensures that Labour's campaign will be fought against the threat of picket lines unless a settlement is found.

In Wales, the day will belong to the Senedd race. Welsh Labour's leader Eluned Morgan launches her party's manifesto in Swansea, while Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth launches his in Bedwas. Both know the expanded 96 member chamber offers their parties a once in a generation opportunity: for Labour to renew its long dominance, and for Plaid to break it.

Scotland, meanwhile, is preparing for a Parliament election in which the SNP will seek to extend its long hold on power at Holyrood, with John Swinney asking voters for a fresh mandate. The SNP has dominated Scottish elections for nearly two decades, and its opponents have yet to settle on a strategy for dislodging it. The contest there will also test whether the unionist parties can find any common ground, or whether they will continue to divide the same voters three ways.

Every party is now campaigning in the shadow of the same question: how deep does the volatility run? The answers will arrive on 7 May, and no leader, in Downing Street or beyond, is entirely sure what the country will tell them.

"Every party is now campaigning in the shadow of the same question: how deep does the volatility run?"